# 🎯 KCH123 Polymarket Copy-Trading Analysis

Comprehensive backtest of copying kch123's trading strategy

Wallet: 0x6a72f61820b26b1fe4d956e17b6dc2a1ea3033ee

+$9.37M
kch123's Net Profit
1,862
Total Predictions
+73.1%
Sample ROI
40%
Sample Win Rate

## 📊 Copy-Trading Simulation Results

Backtested with $10,000 starting bankroll across different timing scenarios:

-$256
Instant Copy
-$346
30-min Delay
-$436
1-hour Delay

### 🚀 Instant Copy

Final Bankroll | $9,743.82
Total P&L | -$256.18 (-2.6%)
Win Rate | 50.0% (2/4 trades)
Max Drawdown | 7.8%
Max Losing Streak | 2 trades

### ⏱️ 30-min Delay

Final Bankroll | $9,653.72
Total P&L | -$346.28 (-3.5%)
Win Rate | 50.0% (2/4 trades)
Max Drawdown | 8.2%
Max Losing Streak | 2 trades

### 🕐 1-hour Delay

Final Bankroll | $9,564.00
Total P&L | -$436.00 (-4.4%)
Win Rate | 25.0% (1/4 trades)
Max Drawdown | 8.7%
Max Losing Streak | 3 trades

## 🏆 Top Market Analysis

Market | Invested | Redeemed | P&L | ROI
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers O/U 233.5 | $76,369.97 | $155,857.08 | +$79,487.11 | +104.1%
Hurricanes vs Rangers | $34,611.06 | $38,034.47 | +$3,423.41 | +9.9%
Lakers vs Warriors | $700.00 | $0.00 | -$700.00 | -100.0%

## ⚠️ Risk Assessment

Risk Level: LOW RISK - 7.8% maximum drawdown in simulation
⚠️ Important Disclaimers:

- This analysis uses a small sample of recent trades, not the full 1,862 trade history
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- Sports betting markets are highly volatile and unpredictable
- Slippage and timing delays significantly impact profitability

### 📊 Risk Metrics

Recommended Minimum Bankroll | $7,838
Position Sizing | Max 5% per trade
Market Types | Sports totals, spreads, moneylines
Resolution Time | Hours to days

## 💡 Key Insights & Findings

- Track Record: kch123 shows +$9.37M net profit with 1,862 predictions
- High Volume: Individual trades often exceed $10K-$100K+ in size
- Sports Focus: Primarily NBA/NHL totals and spreads
- Timing Critical: Even 30-minute delays reduce returns significantly
- Sample Limitation: This analysis represents recent activity, full dataset needed for robust conclusions

## 🎯 Copy-Trading Viability Assessment

### ✅ Positive Factors:

- Strong historical performance (+$9.37M total)
- High-volume trades suggest conviction
- Sports markets offer fast resolution
- Clear trade history available via API

### ❌ Risk Factors:

- Large position sizes require substantial bankroll
- Execution delays kill profitability due to fast-moving odds
- Sample shows recent modest performance vs. historical gains
- Sports betting inherently high variance

### 🤔 Final Verdict:

Proceed with Caution: While kch123 has an impressive track record, copy-trading faces significant challenges:

1. Execution Speed: Need near-instant copying to avoid price movement
2. Capital Requirements: Need $50K+ to meaningfully copy large positions
3. Market Access: Must have access to same markets at similar odds
4. Variance: Prepare for substantial short-term drawdowns

Report generated on February 8, 2026 | Based on sample of recent trades

For full analysis, process complete 1,862+ trade history