# Polymarket 15-Min Crypto Arbitrage

**Source:** https://x.com/noisyb0y1/status/2020942208858456206
**Date investigated:** 2026-02-09
**Verdict:** Legitimate edge, inflated claims

## Strategy
- Buy BOTH sides (Up + Down) on 15-minute BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP markets
- When combined cost < $1.00, guaranteed profit regardless of outcome
- Edge exists because these markets are low liquidity / inefficient pricing

## Reference Wallet
- `0xE594336603F4fB5d3ba4125a67021ab3B4347052`
- Real PnL on 2026-02-09: ~$9K on $82K deployed (11% daily)
- Combined costs ranged from $0.70 (great arb) to $1.10 (not arb)
- Best arbs: ETH markets at $0.70-0.73 combined cost

## Why It Works
- 15-min markets have thin books — prices diverge from fair value
- Binary outcome means Up + Down must sum to $1.00 at resolution
- If you buy both for < $1.00 total, guaranteed profit

## Challenges
- Needs significant capital ($50K+) to make meaningful returns
- Fill quality degrades at scale — slippage kills the edge
- Competition from other bots narrows the window
- Not all markets have arb — some combined costs > $1.00

## Revisit When
- [ ] We have capital to deploy
- [ ] Built a bot to scan for combined < $1.00 opportunities in real-time
- [ ] Polymarket adds more 15-min markets (more opportunities)

## Related
- Tweet author promoting "Clawdbots" — bot product shill
- "$99K in a day" / "$340K total" claims are inflated (real: $9K profit)
