Playwright X scraper, daily notes, feed analysis

memory/2026-02-09.md

@@ -1,62 +1,66 @@
-# 2026-02-09
+# 2026-02-09 — Monday
 
-## Market Watch Launch Day
-- GARP paper trading simulator went live
-- 9 AM systemd timer fired but crashed (scanner returns list, code expected dict) — fixed
-- Manual run at 10:49 AM — **7 positions opened**:
-  - DUOL (57 shares @ $116.35)
-  - ALLY (156 shares @ $42.65)
-  - JHG (138 shares @ $48.21)
-  - INCY (61 shares @ $108.69)
-  - PINS (332 shares @ $20.06)
-  - EXEL (152 shares @ $43.80)
-  - CART (187 shares @ $35.49)
-- ~$46.5K deployed, ~$53.5K cash remaining
-- Portal live at marketwatch.local:8889
-- Multiplayer game engine working — "GARP Challenge" game created
+## X Feed Analysis Day
+Major session analyzing Polymarket/crypto tweets D J forwarded from X feed.
 
-## Super Bowl Results (from last night)
-- Seahawks 36, Patriots 13
-- kch123 copy-trade sim: ALL 5 positions won, +$728 on $1K bankroll (+72.8%)
-- kch123 himself probably cleared ~$2M profit on this game
-- Two weeks straight of wins for kch123 (60-0 last week + Super Bowl sweep)
+### Tweets Investigated
+1. **@browomo weather edge** — Pilot METAR data for Polymarket weather bets
+   - Wallet `0x594edB9112f...`: Claimed +$27K, actual **-$13,103** (387 losses, 51 wins)
+   - Verdict: SCAM/engagement bait
 
-## Craigslist Account (from yesterday)
-- Registered: case-lgn@protonmail.com, Nashville area
-- Password set, credentials saved to .credentials/craigslist.env
-- User ID: 405642144
-- D J not ready for listings yet (needs photos)
+2. **@ArchiveExplorer planktonXD** — "Buy everything under 5 cents"
+   - Wallet `0x4ffe49ba2a4c...`: Claimed +$104K, actual **-$9,517** (3090 losses, 1368 wins, 37% win rate)
+   - Verdict: SCAM/engagement bait
 
-## D J Interests
-- Looking at queen Murphy beds on Craigslist
-- Wants to get rid of an old mattress (options discussed: Metro Nashville bulky pickup, free CL listing, dump)
-- Interested in Olympics men's hockey (USA in Group C, games start Feb 11)
-- Expanding analysis beyond Polymarket into crypto and stocks
-- Goal: find market gaps to offset AI service costs ($200/mo Claude + infra)
-- Getting crypto signals on Telegram, wants to forward them for analysis
-- Asked about Tiiny AI (kickstarter AI hardware, 80GB unified memory, NPU) as potential Claude replacement
+3. **@krajekis BTC 15-min LONG** — "+700% monthly, 1 trade/day at 9AM"
+   - Backtested 25 days: 52% win rate (coin flip), strategy loses 76% of capital
+   - Verdict: FABRICATED results
 
-## Stock Screener Built
-- GARP filters automated via yfinance (free, no API key)
-- S&P 500 + S&P 400 MidCap scan (~902 tickers)
-- Initial S&P 500 scan found 4: BAC, CFG, FITB, INCY
-- Expanded scan found 22 total candidates
-- Top non-bank picks: PINS, FSLR, PGR, NEM, ALLY
-- Deep dive sub-agent ran on all 4 original picks
+4. **@noisyb0y1 15-min arb** — "$99K in a day"
+   - Wallet `0xE594336603F4...`: Real strategy (buying both sides), actual PnL ~$9K not $99K
+   - Combined costs $0.70-$0.95 on some markets = genuine arb edge
+   - Verdict: INFLATED numbers, but strategy has merit → bookmarked for scanner
 
-## X Post Analysis: @Shelpid_WI3M / anoin123
-- Wallet 0x96489abc... is real, +$1.59M PnL, 216 trades
-- BUT: concentrated single-thesis bet (NO on Iran strikes), not diversified alpha
-- Post is a shill for PolyCopyBot (Telegram copy-trading bot)
-- Verdict: real wallet, misleading narrative, exists to sell bot subscriptions
+5. **5 more wallets** — spawned sub-agent to research @IH2P, Super Bowl trader, NegRisk arb, Elon insider, $270→$244K bot
 
-## Tiiny AI Analysis
-- 80GB LPDDR5X, ARM + NPU (160 TOPS), 18-40 tok/s, 30W
-- Kickstarter vaporware — doesn't exist yet
-- Would blow away D J's current 22GB VRAM setup IF it ships
-- Recommended waiting for real reviews, not pre-ordering
+### Pattern Identified
+- Fintwit Polymarket accounts follow identical template: big $ claim → wallet → product shill
+- Products being shilled: Clawdbots, Moltbook, Bullpen (affiliate/paid promos)
+- Real money is in selling engagement, not trading
+- Wallets are cherry-picked; PnL claims conflate position value with profit
 
-## Lessons
-- Scanner run_scan() returns list, not dict — caused systemd crash on first real run
-- Always test the full pipeline end-to-end before relying on timers
-- yfinance is reliable and free for fundamental data, no API key needed
+### Built Today
+- **Crypto signals pipeline** (`projects/crypto-signals/`)
+  - Signal parser for Telegram JSON exports
+  - Price fetcher (Binance US API)
+  - Backtester with Polymarket fee awareness
+  - Ready for D J's Telegram group export
+
+- **Polymarket 15-min arb scanner** — systemd timer every 2 min
+  - Scans active Up or Down markets
+  - Checks orderbooks for combined < $1.00
+  - Paper trades and Telegram alerts
+  - Finding: markets are tight at steady state, arb windows likely during volatility
+
+- **Playwright installed** — replaced flaky CDP websocket approach
+  - `connect_over_cdp('http://localhost:9222')` works with existing Chrome session
+  - X feed scraper working via Playwright
+
+- **PowerInfer multi-GPU cron** — weekly Monday check for feature support
+
+### Day-of-Week Stock Strategy
+- D J's friend suggested buy Friday/Monday, sell midweek
+- Backtested 5 years of SPY: Monday is strongest day (+0.114%, 62% win rate)
+- Buy Mon Open → Sell Wed Close: 56% win rate, +0.265% avg, $10K→$17.8K
+- But buy & hold still wins: $10K→$19K
+- Verdict: weak edge, needs additional filters to be useful
+
+### Infrastructure
+- Polymarket fee structure documented: 15-min markets have taker fees, max 1.56% at 50/50
+- Fee formula: `shares × price × 0.25 × (price × (1-price))²`
+- Binance international is geo-blocked; Binance US works
+
+### Pending
+- D J sending Telegram crypto signal group export (Option 2: JSON export)
+- Signal provider uses VWAP-based strategy
+- Sub-agent researching 5 more wallets