# anoin123 Polymarket Investigation

**Date:** 2026-02-11
**Wallet:** `0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825`
**Profile:** [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/profile?id=0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825)
**Pseudonym:** Whimsical-Terminal

## Summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Trades | 306 |
| Active Period | 2025-12-29 → 2026-02-11 (45 days) |
| Total Volume | $2,236,386 |
| Avg Trade Size | $7,308 |
| Max Single Trade | $125,000 |
| Dominant Side | BUY (74%), mostly "No" outcomes (79%) |

## PnL Verification

**Claimed:** $1.6M in 57 days
**Observed:** 45 days of activity, $2.2M volume. With avg buy price of 0.696 and heavy "No" betting on events that mostly haven't happened (Iran strikes, government shutdown), many positions likely resolved profitably at $1.00. The $1.6M claim is **plausible but unverifiable** from trade data alone — would need resolution data for each market.

Key winning themes:
- **Iran strikes "No"** — Repeatedly bought "No" on US strikes Iran across many date variants. These all resolved "No" = $1.00 payouts.
- **Government shutdown** — $503K volume, likely profitable
- **Fed chair nominations** — $316K volume on Kevin Warsh/Hassett

## Trading Hour Distribution (EST) — ⚠️ CLAIM NOT VERIFIED

**Claimed:** Trades 2-4 AM EST consistently

**Actual distribution:** Trades are spread **11 AM - 10 PM EST**, peaking at 3 PM EST.

```
00:00   11  ███████████
01:00    3  ███
02:00    6  ██████
03:00    0
04:00    0
...
11:00   23  ███████████████████████
12:00   22  ██████████████████████
13:00   17  █████████████████
14:00   27  ███████████████████████████
15:00   34  ██████████████████████████████████  ← PEAK
16:00   20  ████████████████████
17:00   14  ██████████████
18:00   20  ████████████████████
19:00   28  ████████████████████████████
20:00   28  ████████████████████████████
21:00   25  █████████████████████████
22:00   11  ███████████
23:00    8  ████████
```

Only 20 trades (6.5%) between midnight-3AM. The 2-4 AM claim is **FALSE**. This trader is active during normal US business/evening hours.

## Market Preferences

**Heavily concentrated in geopolitics/Iran:**
- Iran/Geopolitics: 145 trades (47%)
- AI markets: 59 trades (19%)
- Other (shutdown, Greenland, Venezuela, sports): 99 trades (32%)
- Trump/Politics: 3 trades (1%)

**Strategy: "No" harvesting on time-bounded events.** Buys "No" on "Will X happen by [date]?" at 90-99¢, collects the 1-6% spread when events don't happen. This is essentially selling insurance against unlikely events.

### Top Markets by Volume
1. US government shutdown — $503K
2. Khamenei out as Supreme Leader — $257K
3. Trump nominates Kevin Warsh — $207K
4. Seahawks vs Patriots — $125K
5. US strikes Iran (multiple dates) — $500K+ combined

## Position Sizing

- **Average:** $7,308 per trade
- **Typical range:** $1K-$30K
- **Max:** $125,000 (single sports bet)
- **Min:** $3.70
- Frequently stacks into positions across multiple orders

## Buy Price Distribution

| Range | Count | % |
|---|---|---|
| 0.90-1.00 | 73 | 32% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 29 | 13% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 39 | 17% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 24 | 11% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 11 | 5% |
| <0.50 | 51 | 22% |

Average buy price: **$0.696**

## Copy-Trade Viability Assessment

### Pros
- Clear, repeatable strategy (No-harvesting on time-bound events)
- High volume = liquid markets, can follow
- Diversified across multiple events within the same theme

### Cons
- **Capital intensive** — avg $7K per trade, needs significant bankroll
- **Low margin** — buying No at 95-99¢ yields 1-5% return
- **Strategy is mechanical** — could be replicated without copying; just sell insurance on time-bound geopolitical events
- **Risk of catastrophic loss** — if Iran actually gets struck, the "No" positions go to zero
- **Not as exciting as claimed** — normal trading hours, standard strategy

### Verdict
**Medium copy-trade value.** The strategy works but isn't alpha — it's a known risk premium harvest. The 2-4 AM claim being false raises credibility questions about whoever promoted this account. Better to understand the strategy and implement independently than blindly copy.

## Comparison to kch123

| Metric | anoin123 | kch123 |
|---|---|---|
| Strategy | No-harvesting (insurance selling) | Event-driven directional |
| Avg Trade | $7,308 | Smaller |
| Concentration | Very concentrated (Iran) | More diversified |
| Risk Profile | Low return, catastrophic tail risk | Higher variance |
| Edge | Time decay / status quo bias | Information/timing |

anoin123 is essentially running a "sell vol" strategy on Polymarket — profitable until it isn't.