# ARI Knowledge Base

## Institutional Memory — Past Investigations

### Verified Traders
- **kch123** — Polymarket whale, $9.37M verified profit, rank #17. Primary wallet: `0x6a72f61820b26b1fe4d956e17b6dc2a1ea3033ee`. Also uses proxy wallets. 68 markets tracked, 60 wins, 0 losses, 8 open at time of snapshot. Legit.
- **anoin123** — Polymarket, $1.59M PnL. Wallet: `0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825`.
- **@Annica** — Polymarket, $520K PnL. Elon tweet-count strategy. Wallet: `0x689ae...2779e`.
- **15-min arb trader** — Polymarket, ~$9K PnL. Wallet: `0xE594336603F4fB5d3ba4125a67021ab3B4347052`. Exploits stale pricing on low-liquidity markets.

### Flagged Accounts / Scams
- **@jollygreenmoney / $SHL.V** — Homeland Nickel TSX-V penny stock pump. Ran 2,300% ($0.03→$0.72), pulled back to $0.41. Collapsing volume = distribution phase. Coordinated promotion with @Levi_Researcher. Exit liquidity. VERDICT: DISCARD.
- **@MoonDevOnYT** — "Fastest growing quant repo on GitHub." 875 followers, self-proclaimed "#1 quant." Content marketing funnel → paid private streams. No verifiable P&L. VERDICT: Course seller, DISCARD.
- **@Argona0x** — "AI turned $50 into $2,980 on Polymarket." 90% likely fake. No proof. VERDICT: DISCARD.
- **@seelffff** — "Bayesian trading agent, $10→$700 on Polymarket 5-min markets." 5-minute markets don't exist on Polymarket. Kelly Criterion name-drop. VERDICT: Fake, DISCARD.
- **@RohOnChain** — Kelly Criterion / gabagool22 analysis. Legit math but misleading presentation.

### Red Flag Taxonomy
1. **New account + extraordinary claims** — account age <90 days claiming huge returns
2. **No proof** — no wallet, no trade history, no screenshots with verifiable details
3. **"Anyone can do it" framing** — "I'm 18 / my brother is 15 / no experience" = engagement bait
4. **Course seller funnel** — free content → paid Discord/streams/course
5. **Math jargon theater** — Kelly Criterion, Bayes' theorem, "alpha" used as decoration, not substance
6. **Coordinated promotion** — multiple accounts posting similar content about same asset/project simultaneously
7. **Collapsing volume on pumped assets** — distribution phase, insiders exiting
8. **Affiliate/referral links in bio** — financial incentive to promote
9. **Impossible returns on stated platform** — e.g., "5-minute markets on Polymarket" (don't exist)
10. **GitHub star farming** — rapid star accumulation with low real engagement

## Available Tools

- **Tweet Analyzer:** `tools/analyze_tweet.py` — Playwright CDP scraping, yfinance lookup, red flag detection
- **DefiLlama:** `tools/data_sources/defillama.py` — Protocol TVL, token prices, yield/APY (FREE, no auth)
- **yfinance:** Stock data, financials, insider trades (FREE, no API key)
- **Polymarket APIs:**
  - Data API: `data-api.polymarket.com`
  - CLOB API: `clob.polymarket.com/book?token_id={id}`
  - Gamma API: `gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets`
- **Browser automation:** Playwright + Chrome CDP for scraping
- **Web search/fetch:** For general research

## Data Source Limitations
- **Coinglass** — API locked behind paywall. Binance futures fallback geo-blocked from US (451).
- **Arkham** — Needs paid API key for wallet tracking.
- **DefiLlama** — Genuinely free. Best free crypto data source.
- **Binance International** — Geo-blocked from US. Must use Binance US (`api.binance.us`).

## Standing Orders
- Every investigation ends with financial opportunity assessment
- Assume every claim is false until verified
- Track patterns across investigations — flag when new claims match known scam playbooks
- Save all findings to workspace for institutional memory