{
  "id": "inv-20260208-kch123",
  "source_post": {
    "author": "@linie_oo",
    "url": "https://x.com/linie_oo/status/2020141674828034243",
    "claim": "polymarket trader who is almost $10,000,000 in profit from sports betting"
  },
  "investigation": {
    "profile_url": "https://polymarket.com/@kch123",
    "verified_data": {
      "all_time_pnl": "$9,371,829.00",
      "positions_value": "$2.3m",
      "biggest_win": "$1.1m",
      "total_predictions": 1862,
      "past_month_pnl": "$3,308,983.50",
      "joined": "Jun 2025",
      "profile_views": "580.4k"
    },
    "claim_vs_reality": {
      "claimed_profit": "$9,300,000",
      "actual_profit": "$9,371,829",
      "accuracy": "VERIFIED — actually slightly understated",
      "claimed_half_this_month": "$3,308,983.50 past month = ~35% of total (not exactly half but close)",
      "active_positions": "$2.3m (post claimed $2.4m — close enough)"
    },
    "risk_assessment": {
      "score": 7,
      "notes": [
        "Account is real and profitable — verified on-chain via Polymarket",
        "Past performance doesn't guarantee future results",
        "Sports betting has high variance — $9M profit could swing hard",
        "Copy-trading lag: by the time you see + copy, odds may have moved",
        "1,862 predictions suggests systematic approach, not luck",
        "Concentration risk: $2.3M in active positions is aggressive"
      ]
    },
    "verdict": "VERIFIED — profile is real, numbers check out",
    "actionable": true,
    "strategy_notes": "Could build a copy-bot that monitors kch123's positions via Polymarket API and mirrors trades with configurable delay/sizing. Need to backtest: what would returns look like if you copied with a 5-min/30-min/1-hr delay? Slippage matters."
  },
  "suggested_simulation": {
    "strategy": "polymarket-copy-kch123",
    "type": "bet",
    "approach": "Mirror kch123 active positions via Polymarket API",
    "bankroll": 1000,
    "max_position": 200,
    "backtest_needed": true,
    "backtest_plan": "Pull kch123 historical trades via API, simulate copying with various delays, measure P&L impact of timing lag"
  }
}