# 2026-02-09 — Monday

## X Feed Analysis Day
Major session analyzing Polymarket/crypto tweets D J forwarded from X feed.

### Tweets Investigated
1. **@browomo weather edge** — Pilot METAR data for Polymarket weather bets
   - Wallet `0x594edB9112f...`: Claimed +$27K, actual **-$13,103** (387 losses, 51 wins)
   - Verdict: SCAM/engagement bait

2. **@ArchiveExplorer planktonXD** — "Buy everything under 5 cents"
   - Wallet `0x4ffe49ba2a4c...`: Claimed +$104K, actual **-$9,517** (3090 losses, 1368 wins, 37% win rate)
   - Verdict: SCAM/engagement bait

3. **@krajekis BTC 15-min LONG** — "+700% monthly, 1 trade/day at 9AM"
   - Backtested 25 days: 52% win rate (coin flip), strategy loses 76% of capital
   - Verdict: FABRICATED results

4. **@noisyb0y1 15-min arb** — "$99K in a day"
   - Wallet `0xE594336603F4...`: Real strategy (buying both sides), actual PnL ~$9K not $99K
   - Combined costs $0.70-$0.95 on some markets = genuine arb edge
   - Verdict: INFLATED numbers, but strategy has merit → bookmarked for scanner

5. **5 more wallets** — spawned sub-agent to research @IH2P, Super Bowl trader, NegRisk arb, Elon insider, $270→$244K bot

### Pattern Identified
- Fintwit Polymarket accounts follow identical template: big $ claim → wallet → product shill
- Products being shilled: Clawdbots, Moltbook, Bullpen (affiliate/paid promos)
- Real money is in selling engagement, not trading
- Wallets are cherry-picked; PnL claims conflate position value with profit

### Built Today
- **Crypto signals pipeline** (`projects/crypto-signals/`)
  - Signal parser for Telegram JSON exports
  - Price fetcher (Binance US API)
  - Backtester with Polymarket fee awareness
  - Ready for D J's Telegram group export

- **Polymarket 15-min arb scanner** — systemd timer every 2 min
  - Scans active Up or Down markets
  - Checks orderbooks for combined < $1.00
  - Paper trades and Telegram alerts
  - Finding: markets are tight at steady state, arb windows likely during volatility

- **Playwright installed** — replaced flaky CDP websocket approach
  - `connect_over_cdp('http://localhost:9222')` works with existing Chrome session
  - X feed scraper working via Playwright

- **PowerInfer multi-GPU cron** — weekly Monday check for feature support

### Day-of-Week Stock Strategy
- D J's friend suggested buy Friday/Monday, sell midweek
- Backtested 5 years of SPY: Monday is strongest day (+0.114%, 62% win rate)
- Buy Mon Open → Sell Wed Close: 56% win rate, +0.265% avg, $10K→$17.8K
- But buy & hold still wins: $10K→$19K
- Verdict: weak edge, needs additional filters to be useful

### Infrastructure
- Polymarket fee structure documented: 15-min markets have taker fees, max 1.56% at 50/50
- Fee formula: `shares × price × 0.25 × (price × (1-price))²`
- Binance international is geo-blocked; Binance US works

### Pending
- D J sending Telegram crypto signal group export (Option 2: JSON export)
- Signal provider uses VWAP-based strategy
- Sub-agent researching 5 more wallets