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data/tasks/polymarket-sports-arb.md

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+# Polymarket Sports Arbitrage Scanner
+
+**Priority:** HIGH — D J's top money-making project
+**Assigned:** Glitch (build) → Hawk (review) → Jinx (QA)
+**Created:** 2026-02-26
+
+## Overview
+Build a scanner that compares odds from D J's existing odds aggregation database (Postgres on VPS) against Polymarket sports market prices to find arbitrage opportunities.
+
+## Architecture
+```
+[D J's VPS Postgres] ──→ Scanner ──→ [Polymarket API] ──→ Compare ──→ [Telegram Alerts]
+   (odds from books)                  (market prices)       (find arb)    (notify D J)
+```
+
+## Phase 1: Polymarket Sports Markets Reader (BUILD NOW)
+- Fetch all active sports markets from Polymarket Gamma API
+- Parse market structure: teams, outcomes, prices, liquidity, close time
+- Store in local SQLite for comparison
+- Telegram alerts when opportunities found
+- **No DB dependency** — this phase uses only Polymarket public API
+
+### Key APIs
+- Gamma API: `https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false`
+- CLOB API: `https://clob.polymarket.com/` (order book depth, best bid/ask)
+- Filter for sports: tags contain "Sports", "NFL", "NBA", "NHL", "MLB", "Soccer", etc.
+
+## Phase 2: Odds DB Integration (AFTER D J provides PG access)
+- Connect to D J's Postgres on VPS (read-only)
+- Map book odds → implied probability
+- Compare implied prob vs Polymarket price
+- Flag when: `book_implied_prob > polymarket_price + fee + margin`
+
+## Phase 3: Backtesting
+- Historical odds vs Polymarket resolution
+- Win rate, ROI, optimal thresholds
+
+## Phase 4: Auto-execution (Future)
+- Place bets via Polymarket CLOB API
+- Position sizing, bankroll management
+
+## Technical Notes
+- Polymarket Data API is public, no auth for reads
+- kch123 wallet analysis shows sports arb is proven ($9.37M P&L)
+- kch123's edge: ~30-60s detection window, negligible for pre-game bets
+- Reference: `data/investigations/polymarket-15min-arb.md` (different strategy but same platform)
+- Existing scanner: `projects/crypto-signals/scripts/polymarket_arb_scanner.py` (15-min crypto, reuse patterns)
+
+## Constraints
+- Python (match existing infra)
+- Telegram alerts (same pattern as CoinEx trader)
+- Systemd timer (5-15 min interval)
+- Zero AI tokens — pure Python
+- Paper trade first, log all opportunities
+
+## Deliverables
+1. `projects/crypto-signals/scripts/polymarket_sports_scanner.py`
+2. Systemd service + timer
+3. Telegram alert integration
+4. Local SQLite for market history
+5. Unit tests