Polymarket Sports Arbitrage Scanner

Priority: HIGH — D J's top money-making project Assigned: Glitch (build) → Hawk (review) → Jinx (QA) Created: 2026-02-26

Overview

Build a scanner that compares odds from D J's existing odds aggregation database (Postgres on VPS) against Polymarket sports market prices to find arbitrage opportunities.

Architecture

[D J's VPS Postgres] ──→ Scanner ──→ [Polymarket API] ──→ Compare ──→ [Telegram Alerts]
   (odds from books)                  (market prices)       (find arb)    (notify D J)

Phase 1: Polymarket Sports Markets Reader (BUILD NOW)

Fetch all active sports markets from Polymarket Gamma API
Parse market structure: teams, outcomes, prices, liquidity, close time
Store in local SQLite for comparison
Telegram alerts when opportunities found
No DB dependency — this phase uses only Polymarket public API

Key APIs

Gamma API: https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false
CLOB API: https://clob.polymarket.com/ (order book depth, best bid/ask)
Filter for sports: tags contain "Sports", "NFL", "NBA", "NHL", "MLB", "Soccer", etc.

Phase 2: Odds DB Integration (AFTER D J provides PG access)

Connect to D J's Postgres on VPS (read-only)
Map book odds → implied probability
Compare implied prob vs Polymarket price
Flag when: book_implied_prob > polymarket_price + fee + margin

Phase 3: Backtesting

Historical odds vs Polymarket resolution
Win rate, ROI, optimal thresholds

Phase 4: Auto-execution (Future)

Place bets via Polymarket CLOB API
Position sizing, bankroll management

Technical Notes

Polymarket Data API is public, no auth for reads
kch123 wallet analysis shows sports arb is proven ($9.37M P&L)
kch123's edge: ~30-60s detection window, negligible for pre-game bets
Reference: data/investigations/polymarket-15min-arb.md (different strategy but same platform)
Existing scanner: projects/crypto-signals/scripts/polymarket_arb_scanner.py (15-min crypto, reuse patterns)

Constraints

Python (match existing infra)
Telegram alerts (same pattern as CoinEx trader)
Systemd timer (5-15 min interval)
Zero AI tokens — pure Python
Paper trade first, log all opportunities

Deliverables

projects/crypto-signals/scripts/polymarket_sports_scanner.py
Systemd service + timer
Telegram alert integration
Local SQLite for market history
Unit tests

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