anoin123 Polymarket Investigation

Date: 2026-02-11 Wallet: 0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825 Profile: Polymarket Pseudonym: Whimsical-Terminal

Summary

Metric	Value
Total Trades	306
Active Period	2025-12-29 → 2026-02-11 (45 days)
Total Volume	$2,236,386
Avg Trade Size	$7,308
Max Single Trade	$125,000
Dominant Side	BUY (74%), mostly "No" outcomes (79%)

PnL Verification

Claimed: $1.6M in 57 days Observed: 45 days of activity, $2.2M volume. With avg buy price of 0.696 and heavy "No" betting on events that mostly haven't happened (Iran strikes, government shutdown), many positions likely resolved profitably at $1.00. The $1.6M claim is plausible but unverifiable from trade data alone — would need resolution data for each market.

Key winning themes:

Iran strikes "No" — Repeatedly bought "No" on US strikes Iran across many date variants. These all resolved "No" = $1.00 payouts.
Government shutdown — $503K volume, likely profitable
Fed chair nominations — $316K volume on Kevin Warsh/Hassett

Trading Hour Distribution (EST) — ⚠️ CLAIM NOT VERIFIED

Claimed: Trades 2-4 AM EST consistently

Actual distribution: Trades are spread 11 AM - 10 PM EST, peaking at 3 PM EST.

00:00   11  ███████████
01:00    3  ███
02:00    6  ██████
03:00    0
04:00    0
...
11:00   23  ███████████████████████
12:00   22  ██████████████████████
13:00   17  █████████████████
14:00   27  ███████████████████████████
15:00   34  ██████████████████████████████████  ← PEAK
16:00   20  ████████████████████
17:00   14  ██████████████
18:00   20  ████████████████████
19:00   28  ████████████████████████████
20:00   28  ████████████████████████████
21:00   25  █████████████████████████
22:00   11  ███████████
23:00    8  ████████

Only 20 trades (6.5%) between midnight-3AM. The 2-4 AM claim is FALSE. This trader is active during normal US business/evening hours.

Market Preferences

Heavily concentrated in geopolitics/Iran:

Iran/Geopolitics: 145 trades (47%)
AI markets: 59 trades (19%)
Other (shutdown, Greenland, Venezuela, sports): 99 trades (32%)
Trump/Politics: 3 trades (1%)

Strategy: "No" harvesting on time-bounded events. Buys "No" on "Will X happen by [date]?" at 90-99¢, collects the 1-6% spread when events don't happen. This is essentially selling insurance against unlikely events.

Top Markets by Volume

US government shutdown — $503K
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader — $257K
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh — $207K
Seahawks vs Patriots — $125K
US strikes Iran (multiple dates) — $500K+ combined

Position Sizing

Average: $7,308 per trade
Typical range: $1K-$30K
Max: $125,000 (single sports bet)
Min: $3.70
Frequently stacks into positions across multiple orders

Buy Price Distribution

Range	Count	%
0.90-1.00	73	32%
0.80-0.90	29	13%
0.70-0.80	39	17%
0.60-0.70	24	11%
0.50-0.60	11	5%
<0.50	51	22%

Average buy price: $0.696

Copy-Trade Viability Assessment

Pros

Clear, repeatable strategy (No-harvesting on time-bound events)
High volume = liquid markets, can follow
Diversified across multiple events within the same theme

Cons

Capital intensive — avg $7K per trade, needs significant bankroll
Low margin — buying No at 95-99¢ yields 1-5% return
Strategy is mechanical — could be replicated without copying; just sell insurance on time-bound geopolitical events
Risk of catastrophic loss — if Iran actually gets struck, the "No" positions go to zero
Not as exciting as claimed — normal trading hours, standard strategy

Verdict

Medium copy-trade value. The strategy works but isn't alpha — it's a known risk premium harvest. The 2-4 AM claim being false raises credibility questions about whoever promoted this account. Better to understand the strategy and implement independently than blindly copy.

Comparison to kch123

Metric	anoin123	kch123
Strategy	No-harvesting (insurance selling)	Event-driven directional
Avg Trade	$7,308	Smaller
Concentration	Very concentrated (Iran)	More diversified
Risk Profile	Low return, catastrophic tail risk	Higher variance
Edge	Time decay / status quo bias	Information/timing

anoin123 is essentially running a "sell vol" strategy on Polymarket — profitable until it isn't.

5.1 KiB Raw Blame History