67 lines
3.0 KiB
Markdown
67 lines
3.0 KiB
Markdown
# 2026-02-09 — Monday
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## X Feed Analysis Day
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Major session analyzing Polymarket/crypto tweets D J forwarded from X feed.
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### Tweets Investigated
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1. **@browomo weather edge** — Pilot METAR data for Polymarket weather bets
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- Wallet `0x594edB9112f...`: Claimed +$27K, actual **-$13,103** (387 losses, 51 wins)
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- Verdict: SCAM/engagement bait
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2. **@ArchiveExplorer planktonXD** — "Buy everything under 5 cents"
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- Wallet `0x4ffe49ba2a4c...`: Claimed +$104K, actual **-$9,517** (3090 losses, 1368 wins, 37% win rate)
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- Verdict: SCAM/engagement bait
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3. **@krajekis BTC 15-min LONG** — "+700% monthly, 1 trade/day at 9AM"
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- Backtested 25 days: 52% win rate (coin flip), strategy loses 76% of capital
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- Verdict: FABRICATED results
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4. **@noisyb0y1 15-min arb** — "$99K in a day"
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- Wallet `0xE594336603F4...`: Real strategy (buying both sides), actual PnL ~$9K not $99K
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- Combined costs $0.70-$0.95 on some markets = genuine arb edge
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- Verdict: INFLATED numbers, but strategy has merit → bookmarked for scanner
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5. **5 more wallets** — spawned sub-agent to research @IH2P, Super Bowl trader, NegRisk arb, Elon insider, $270→$244K bot
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### Pattern Identified
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- Fintwit Polymarket accounts follow identical template: big $ claim → wallet → product shill
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- Products being shilled: Clawdbots, Moltbook, Bullpen (affiliate/paid promos)
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- Real money is in selling engagement, not trading
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- Wallets are cherry-picked; PnL claims conflate position value with profit
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### Built Today
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- **Crypto signals pipeline** (`projects/crypto-signals/`)
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- Signal parser for Telegram JSON exports
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- Price fetcher (Binance US API)
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- Backtester with Polymarket fee awareness
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- Ready for D J's Telegram group export
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- **Polymarket 15-min arb scanner** — systemd timer every 2 min
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- Scans active Up or Down markets
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- Checks orderbooks for combined < $1.00
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- Paper trades and Telegram alerts
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- Finding: markets are tight at steady state, arb windows likely during volatility
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- **Playwright installed** — replaced flaky CDP websocket approach
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- `connect_over_cdp('http://localhost:9222')` works with existing Chrome session
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- X feed scraper working via Playwright
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- **PowerInfer multi-GPU cron** — weekly Monday check for feature support
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### Day-of-Week Stock Strategy
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- D J's friend suggested buy Friday/Monday, sell midweek
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- Backtested 5 years of SPY: Monday is strongest day (+0.114%, 62% win rate)
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- Buy Mon Open → Sell Wed Close: 56% win rate, +0.265% avg, $10K→$17.8K
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- But buy & hold still wins: $10K→$19K
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- Verdict: weak edge, needs additional filters to be useful
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### Infrastructure
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- Polymarket fee structure documented: 15-min markets have taker fees, max 1.56% at 50/50
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- Fee formula: `shares × price × 0.25 × (price × (1-price))²`
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- Binance international is geo-blocked; Binance US works
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### Pending
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- D J sending Telegram crypto signal group export (Option 2: JSON export)
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- Signal provider uses VWAP-based strategy
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- Sub-agent researching 5 more wallets
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