Case
8638500190
- Built deep-scraper skill (CDP-based X feed extraction) - Three-stage pipeline: scrape → triage → investigate - Paper trading simulator with position tracking - First live investigation: verified kch123 Polymarket profile ($9.3M P&L) - Opened first paper position: Seahawks Super Bowl @ 68c - Telegram alerts with inline action buttons - Portal build in progress (night shift)
51 lines
2.1 KiB
JSON
51 lines
2.1 KiB
JSON
{
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"id": "inv-20260208-kch123",
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"source_post": {
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"author": "@linie_oo",
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"url": "https://x.com/linie_oo/status/2020141674828034243",
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"claim": "polymarket trader who is almost $10,000,000 in profit from sports betting"
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},
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"investigation": {
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"profile_url": "https://polymarket.com/@kch123",
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"verified_data": {
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"all_time_pnl": "$9,371,829.00",
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"positions_value": "$2.3m",
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"biggest_win": "$1.1m",
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"total_predictions": 1862,
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"past_month_pnl": "$3,308,983.50",
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"joined": "Jun 2025",
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"profile_views": "580.4k"
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},
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"claim_vs_reality": {
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"claimed_profit": "$9,300,000",
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"actual_profit": "$9,371,829",
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"accuracy": "VERIFIED — actually slightly understated",
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"claimed_half_this_month": "$3,308,983.50 past month = ~35% of total (not exactly half but close)",
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"active_positions": "$2.3m (post claimed $2.4m — close enough)"
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},
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"risk_assessment": {
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"score": 7,
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"notes": [
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"Account is real and profitable — verified on-chain via Polymarket",
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"Past performance doesn't guarantee future results",
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"Sports betting has high variance — $9M profit could swing hard",
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"Copy-trading lag: by the time you see + copy, odds may have moved",
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"1,862 predictions suggests systematic approach, not luck",
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"Concentration risk: $2.3M in active positions is aggressive"
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]
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},
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"verdict": "VERIFIED — profile is real, numbers check out",
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"actionable": true,
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"strategy_notes": "Could build a copy-bot that monitors kch123's positions via Polymarket API and mirrors trades with configurable delay/sizing. Need to backtest: what would returns look like if you copied with a 5-min/30-min/1-hr delay? Slippage matters."
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},
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"suggested_simulation": {
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"strategy": "polymarket-copy-kch123",
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"type": "bet",
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"approach": "Mirror kch123 active positions via Polymarket API",
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"bankroll": 1000,
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"max_position": 200,
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"backtest_needed": true,
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"backtest_plan": "Pull kch123 historical trades via API, simulate copying with various delays, measure P&L impact of timing lag"
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}
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}
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