70 lines
2.6 KiB
Markdown
70 lines
2.6 KiB
Markdown
# Polymarket 15-Min Crypto Arbitrage
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**Source:** https://x.com/noisyb0y1/status/2020942208858456206
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**Date investigated:** 2026-02-09
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**Verdict:** Legitimate edge, inflated claims
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## Strategy
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- Buy BOTH sides (Up + Down) on 15-minute BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP markets
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- When combined cost < $1.00, guaranteed profit regardless of outcome
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- Edge exists because these markets are low liquidity / inefficient pricing
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## Reference Wallet
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- `0xE594336603F4fB5d3ba4125a67021ab3B4347052`
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- Real PnL on 2026-02-09: ~$9K on $82K deployed (11% daily)
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- Combined costs ranged from $0.70 (great arb) to $1.10 (not arb)
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- Best arbs: ETH markets at $0.70-0.73 combined cost
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## Why It Works
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- 15-min markets have thin books — prices diverge from fair value
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- Binary outcome means Up + Down must sum to $1.00 at resolution
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- If you buy both for < $1.00 total, guaranteed profit
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## Challenges
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- Needs significant capital ($50K+) to make meaningful returns
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- Fill quality degrades at scale — slippage kills the edge
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- Competition from other bots narrows the window
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- Not all markets have arb — some combined costs > $1.00
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## Revisit When
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- [ ] We have capital to deploy
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- [ ] Built a bot to scan for combined < $1.00 opportunities in real-time
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- [ ] Polymarket adds more 15-min markets (more opportunities)
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## Related
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- Tweet author promoting "Clawdbots" — bot product shill
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- "$99K in a day" / "$340K total" claims are inflated (real: $9K profit)
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---
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# Elon Tweet Count Strategy
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**Source:** @browomo tweet Feb 9 / wallet @Annica on Polymarket
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**Wallet:** `0x689ae...2779e`
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**Actual PnL:** $520,469 | Volume: $51.8M | Rank #193
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**Verdict:** Legit strategy, "insider" framing is BS
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## How It Works
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- Polymarket has weekly markets: "How many tweets will Elon post Feb 2-4?"
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- Ranges like 90-114, 115-139, 140-164, etc.
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- You DON'T need insider access — just count his tweets mid-period
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- As the window closes, you can estimate the final count with high confidence
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- Buy the correct range when it's still cheap, collect $1 payout
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## Why It Works
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- Most bettors place bets early (before data exists)
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- Late bettors with real-time tweet counts have an information edge
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- Similar to the weather METAR concept but this one actually works
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- $520K PnL proves sustained profitability
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## Challenges
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- Markets may get more efficient as more people do this
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- Need to monitor Elon's posting in real-time
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- Liquidity might be thin on specific ranges
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- Could automate: scrape X API for Elon's tweet count, compare to market prices
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## Revisit When
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- [ ] Build automated Elon tweet counter
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- [ ] Monitor market prices vs actual count for edge sizing
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- [ ] Check if other "count" markets exist (posts, mentions, etc.)
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