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workspace/memory/2026-02-09.md

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2026-02-09 — Monday

X Feed Analysis Day

Major session analyzing Polymarket/crypto tweets D J forwarded from X feed.

Tweets Investigated

  1. @browomo weather edge — Pilot METAR data for Polymarket weather bets

    • Wallet 0x594edB9112f...: Claimed +$27K, actual -$13,103 (387 losses, 51 wins)
    • Verdict: SCAM/engagement bait

  2. @ArchiveExplorer planktonXD — "Buy everything under 5 cents"

    • Wallet 0x4ffe49ba2a4c...: Claimed +$104K, actual -$9,517 (3090 losses, 1368 wins, 37% win rate)
    • Verdict: SCAM/engagement bait

  3. @krajekis BTC 15-min LONG — "+700% monthly, 1 trade/day at 9AM"

    • Backtested 25 days: 52% win rate (coin flip), strategy loses 76% of capital
    • Verdict: FABRICATED results

  4. @noisyb0y1 15-min arb — "$99K in a day"

    • Wallet 0xE594336603F4...: Real strategy (buying both sides), actual PnL ~$9K not $99K
    • Combined costs $0.70-$0.95 on some markets = genuine arb edge
    • Verdict: INFLATED numbers, but strategy has merit → bookmarked for scanner

  5. 5 more wallets — spawned sub-agent to research @IH2P, Super Bowl trader, NegRisk arb, Elon insider, $270→$244K bot

Pattern Identified

  • Fintwit Polymarket accounts follow identical template: big $ claim → wallet → product shill
  • Products being shilled: Clawdbots, Moltbook, Bullpen (affiliate/paid promos)
  • Real money is in selling engagement, not trading
  • Wallets are cherry-picked; PnL claims conflate position value with profit

Built Today

  • Crypto signals pipeline (projects/crypto-signals/)

    • Signal parser for Telegram JSON exports
    • Price fetcher (Binance US API)
    • Backtester with Polymarket fee awareness
    • Ready for D J's Telegram group export

  • Polymarket 15-min arb scanner — systemd timer every 2 min

    • Scans active Up or Down markets
    • Checks orderbooks for combined < $1.00
    • Paper trades and Telegram alerts
    • Finding: markets are tight at steady state, arb windows likely during volatility

  • Playwright installed — replaced flaky CDP websocket approach

    • connect_over_cdp('http://localhost:9222') works with existing Chrome session
    • X feed scraper working via Playwright

  • PowerInfer multi-GPU cron — weekly Monday check for feature support

Day-of-Week Stock Strategy

  • D J's friend suggested buy Friday/Monday, sell midweek
  • Backtested 5 years of SPY: Monday is strongest day (+0.114%, 62% win rate)
  • Buy Mon Open → Sell Wed Close: 56% win rate, +0.265% avg, $10K→$17.8K
  • But buy & hold still wins: $10K→$19K
  • Verdict: weak edge, needs additional filters to be useful

Infrastructure

  • Polymarket fee structure documented: 15-min markets have taker fees, max 1.56% at 50/50
  • Fee formula: shares × price × 0.25 × (price × (1-price))²
  • Binance international is geo-blocked; Binance US works

Pending

  • D J sending Telegram crypto signal group export (Option 2: JSON export)
  • Signal provider uses VWAP-based strategy
  • Sub-agent researching 5 more wallets