125 lines
5.1 KiB
Markdown
125 lines
5.1 KiB
Markdown
# anoin123 Polymarket Investigation
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**Date:** 2026-02-11
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**Wallet:** `0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825`
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**Profile:** [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/profile?id=0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825)
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**Pseudonym:** Whimsical-Terminal
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## Summary
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| Metric | Value |
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|---|---|
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| Total Trades | 306 |
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| Active Period | 2025-12-29 → 2026-02-11 (45 days) |
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| Total Volume | $2,236,386 |
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| Avg Trade Size | $7,308 |
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| Max Single Trade | $125,000 |
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| Dominant Side | BUY (74%), mostly "No" outcomes (79%) |
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## PnL Verification
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**Claimed:** $1.6M in 57 days
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**Observed:** 45 days of activity, $2.2M volume. With avg buy price of 0.696 and heavy "No" betting on events that mostly haven't happened (Iran strikes, government shutdown), many positions likely resolved profitably at $1.00. The $1.6M claim is **plausible but unverifiable** from trade data alone — would need resolution data for each market.
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Key winning themes:
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- **Iran strikes "No"** — Repeatedly bought "No" on US strikes Iran across many date variants. These all resolved "No" = $1.00 payouts.
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- **Government shutdown** — $503K volume, likely profitable
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- **Fed chair nominations** — $316K volume on Kevin Warsh/Hassett
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## Trading Hour Distribution (EST) — ⚠️ CLAIM NOT VERIFIED
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**Claimed:** Trades 2-4 AM EST consistently
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**Actual distribution:** Trades are spread **11 AM - 10 PM EST**, peaking at 3 PM EST.
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```
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00:00 11 ███████████
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01:00 3 ███
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02:00 6 ██████
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03:00 0
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04:00 0
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...
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11:00 23 ███████████████████████
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12:00 22 ██████████████████████
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13:00 17 █████████████████
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14:00 27 ███████████████████████████
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15:00 34 ██████████████████████████████████ ← PEAK
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16:00 20 ████████████████████
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17:00 14 ██████████████
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18:00 20 ████████████████████
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19:00 28 ████████████████████████████
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20:00 28 ████████████████████████████
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21:00 25 █████████████████████████
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22:00 11 ███████████
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23:00 8 ████████
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```
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Only 20 trades (6.5%) between midnight-3AM. The 2-4 AM claim is **FALSE**. This trader is active during normal US business/evening hours.
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## Market Preferences
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**Heavily concentrated in geopolitics/Iran:**
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- Iran/Geopolitics: 145 trades (47%)
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- AI markets: 59 trades (19%)
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- Other (shutdown, Greenland, Venezuela, sports): 99 trades (32%)
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- Trump/Politics: 3 trades (1%)
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**Strategy: "No" harvesting on time-bounded events.** Buys "No" on "Will X happen by [date]?" at 90-99¢, collects the 1-6% spread when events don't happen. This is essentially selling insurance against unlikely events.
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### Top Markets by Volume
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1. US government shutdown — $503K
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2. Khamenei out as Supreme Leader — $257K
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3. Trump nominates Kevin Warsh — $207K
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4. Seahawks vs Patriots — $125K
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5. US strikes Iran (multiple dates) — $500K+ combined
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## Position Sizing
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- **Average:** $7,308 per trade
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- **Typical range:** $1K-$30K
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- **Max:** $125,000 (single sports bet)
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- **Min:** $3.70
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- Frequently stacks into positions across multiple orders
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## Buy Price Distribution
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| Range | Count | % |
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|---|---|---|
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| 0.90-1.00 | 73 | 32% |
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| 0.80-0.90 | 29 | 13% |
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| 0.70-0.80 | 39 | 17% |
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| 0.60-0.70 | 24 | 11% |
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| 0.50-0.60 | 11 | 5% |
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| <0.50 | 51 | 22% |
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Average buy price: **$0.696**
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## Copy-Trade Viability Assessment
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### Pros
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- Clear, repeatable strategy (No-harvesting on time-bound events)
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- High volume = liquid markets, can follow
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- Diversified across multiple events within the same theme
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### Cons
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- **Capital intensive** — avg $7K per trade, needs significant bankroll
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- **Low margin** — buying No at 95-99¢ yields 1-5% return
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- **Strategy is mechanical** — could be replicated without copying; just sell insurance on time-bound geopolitical events
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- **Risk of catastrophic loss** — if Iran actually gets struck, the "No" positions go to zero
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- **Not as exciting as claimed** — normal trading hours, standard strategy
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### Verdict
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**Medium copy-trade value.** The strategy works but isn't alpha — it's a known risk premium harvest. The 2-4 AM claim being false raises credibility questions about whoever promoted this account. Better to understand the strategy and implement independently than blindly copy.
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## Comparison to kch123
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| Metric | anoin123 | kch123 |
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| Strategy | No-harvesting (insurance selling) | Event-driven directional |
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| Avg Trade | $7,308 | Smaller |
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| Concentration | Very concentrated (Iran) | More diversified |
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| Risk Profile | Low return, catastrophic tail risk | Higher variance |
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| Edge | Time decay / status quo bias | Information/timing |
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anoin123 is essentially running a "sell vol" strategy on Polymarket — profitable until it isn't.
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