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workspace/data/investigations/polymarket-15min-arb.md
Case be0315894e Add crypto signals pipeline + Polymarket arb scanner 
- Signal parser for Telegram JSON exports
- Price fetcher using Binance US API
- Backtester with fee-aware simulation
- Polymarket 15-min arb scanner with orderbook checking
- Systemd timer every 2 min for arb alerts
- Paper trade tracking
- Investigation: polymarket-15min-arb.md
2026-02-09 14:31:51 -06:00

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Polymarket 15-Min Crypto Arbitrage

Source: https://x.com/noisyb0y1/status/2020942208858456206 Date investigated: 2026-02-09 Verdict: Legitimate edge, inflated claims

Strategy

  • Buy BOTH sides (Up + Down) on 15-minute BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP markets
  • When combined cost < $1.00, guaranteed profit regardless of outcome
  • Edge exists because these markets are low liquidity / inefficient pricing

Reference Wallet

  • 0xE594336603F4fB5d3ba4125a67021ab3B4347052
  • Real PnL on 2026-02-09: ~$9K on $82K deployed (11% daily)
  • Combined costs ranged from $0.70 (great arb) to $1.10 (not arb)
  • Best arbs: ETH markets at $0.70-0.73 combined cost

Why It Works

  • 15-min markets have thin books — prices diverge from fair value
  • Binary outcome means Up + Down must sum to $1.00 at resolution
  • If you buy both for < $1.00 total, guaranteed profit

Challenges

  • Needs significant capital ($50K+) to make meaningful returns
  • Fill quality degrades at scale — slippage kills the edge
  • Competition from other bots narrows the window
  • Not all markets have arb — some combined costs > $1.00

Revisit When

  • We have capital to deploy
  • Built a bot to scan for combined < $1.00 opportunities in real-time
  • Polymarket adds more 15-min markets (more opportunities)

Related

  • Tweet author promoting "Clawdbots" — bot product shill
  • "$99K in a day" / "$340K total" claims are inflated (real: $9K profit)