Case
be0315894e
- Signal parser for Telegram JSON exports - Price fetcher using Binance US API - Backtester with fee-aware simulation - Polymarket 15-min arb scanner with orderbook checking - Systemd timer every 2 min for arb alerts - Paper trade tracking - Investigation: polymarket-15min-arb.md
37 lines
1.4 KiB
Markdown
37 lines
1.4 KiB
Markdown
# Polymarket 15-Min Crypto Arbitrage
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**Source:** https://x.com/noisyb0y1/status/2020942208858456206
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**Date investigated:** 2026-02-09
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**Verdict:** Legitimate edge, inflated claims
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## Strategy
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- Buy BOTH sides (Up + Down) on 15-minute BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP markets
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- When combined cost < $1.00, guaranteed profit regardless of outcome
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- Edge exists because these markets are low liquidity / inefficient pricing
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## Reference Wallet
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- `0xE594336603F4fB5d3ba4125a67021ab3B4347052`
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- Real PnL on 2026-02-09: ~$9K on $82K deployed (11% daily)
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- Combined costs ranged from $0.70 (great arb) to $1.10 (not arb)
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- Best arbs: ETH markets at $0.70-0.73 combined cost
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## Why It Works
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- 15-min markets have thin books — prices diverge from fair value
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- Binary outcome means Up + Down must sum to $1.00 at resolution
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- If you buy both for < $1.00 total, guaranteed profit
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## Challenges
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- Needs significant capital ($50K+) to make meaningful returns
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- Fill quality degrades at scale — slippage kills the edge
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- Competition from other bots narrows the window
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- Not all markets have arb — some combined costs > $1.00
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## Revisit When
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- [ ] We have capital to deploy
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- [ ] Built a bot to scan for combined < $1.00 opportunities in real-time
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- [ ] Polymarket adds more 15-min markets (more opportunities)
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## Related
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- Tweet author promoting "Clawdbots" — bot product shill
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- "$99K in a day" / "$340K total" claims are inflated (real: $9K profit)
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