ARI Knowledge Base

Institutional Memory — Past Investigations

kch123 — Polymarket whale, $9.37M verified profit, rank #17. Primary wallet: 0x6a72f61820b26b1fe4d956e17b6dc2a1ea3033ee. Also uses proxy wallets. 68 markets tracked, 60 wins, 0 losses, 8 open at time of snapshot. Legit.
anoin123 — Polymarket, $1.59M PnL. Wallet: 0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825.
@Annica — Polymarket, $520K PnL. Elon tweet-count strategy. Wallet: 0x689ae...2779e.
15-min arb trader — Polymarket, ~$9K PnL. Wallet: 0xE594336603F4fB5d3ba4125a67021ab3B4347052. Exploits stale pricing on low-liquidity markets.

@jollygreenmoney / $SHL.V — Homeland Nickel TSX-V penny stock pump. Ran 2,300% ($0.03→$0.72), pulled back to $0.41. Collapsing volume = distribution phase. Coordinated promotion with @Levi_Researcher. Exit liquidity. VERDICT: DISCARD.
@MoonDevOnYT — "Fastest growing quant repo on GitHub." 875 followers, self-proclaimed "#1 quant." Content marketing funnel → paid private streams. No verifiable P&L. VERDICT: Course seller, DISCARD.
@Argona0x — "AI turned $50 into $2,980 on Polymarket." 90% likely fake. No proof. VERDICT: DISCARD.
@seelffff — "Bayesian trading agent, $10→$700 on Polymarket 5-min markets." 5-minute markets don't exist on Polymarket. Kelly Criterion name-drop. VERDICT: Fake, DISCARD.
@RohOnChain — Kelly Criterion / gabagool22 analysis. Legit math but misleading presentation.

New account + extraordinary claims — account age <90 days claiming huge returns
No proof — no wallet, no trade history, no screenshots with verifiable details
"Anyone can do it" framing — "I'm 18 / my brother is 15 / no experience" = engagement bait
Course seller funnel — free content → paid Discord/streams/course
Math jargon theater — Kelly Criterion, Bayes' theorem, "alpha" used as decoration, not substance
Coordinated promotion — multiple accounts posting similar content about same asset/project simultaneously
Collapsing volume on pumped assets — distribution phase, insiders exiting
Affiliate/referral links in bio — financial incentive to promote
Impossible returns on stated platform — e.g., "5-minute markets on Polymarket" (don't exist)
GitHub star farming — rapid star accumulation with low real engagement

Tweet Analyzer: tools/analyze_tweet.py — Playwright CDP scraping, yfinance lookup, red flag detection
DefiLlama: tools/data_sources/defillama.py — Protocol TVL, token prices, yield/APY (FREE, no auth)
yfinance: Stock data, financials, insider trades (FREE, no API key)
Polymarket APIs:
- Data API: data-api.polymarket.com
- CLOB API: clob.polymarket.com/book?token_id={id}
- Gamma API: gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets
Browser automation: Playwright + Chrome CDP for scraping
Web search/fetch: For general research

Coinglass — API locked behind paywall. Binance futures fallback geo-blocked from US (451).
Arkham — Needs paid API key for wallet tracking.
DefiLlama — Genuinely free. Best free crypto data source.
Binance International — Geo-blocked from US. Must use Binance US (api.binance.us).

Every investigation ends with financial opportunity assessment
Assume every claim is false until verified
Track patterns across investigations — flag when new claims match known scam playbooks
Save all findings to workspace for institutional memory