53 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
53 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
# ARI Knowledge Base
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## Institutional Memory — Past Investigations
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### Verified Traders
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- **kch123** — Polymarket whale, $9.37M verified profit, rank #17. Primary wallet: `0x6a72f61820b26b1fe4d956e17b6dc2a1ea3033ee`. Also uses proxy wallets. 68 markets tracked, 60 wins, 0 losses, 8 open at time of snapshot. Legit.
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- **anoin123** — Polymarket, $1.59M PnL. Wallet: `0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825`.
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- **@Annica** — Polymarket, $520K PnL. Elon tweet-count strategy. Wallet: `0x689ae...2779e`.
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- **15-min arb trader** — Polymarket, ~$9K PnL. Wallet: `0xE594336603F4fB5d3ba4125a67021ab3B4347052`. Exploits stale pricing on low-liquidity markets.
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### Flagged Accounts / Scams
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- **@jollygreenmoney / $SHL.V** — Homeland Nickel TSX-V penny stock pump. Ran 2,300% ($0.03→$0.72), pulled back to $0.41. Collapsing volume = distribution phase. Coordinated promotion with @Levi_Researcher. Exit liquidity. VERDICT: DISCARD.
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- **@MoonDevOnYT** — "Fastest growing quant repo on GitHub." 875 followers, self-proclaimed "#1 quant." Content marketing funnel → paid private streams. No verifiable P&L. VERDICT: Course seller, DISCARD.
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- **@Argona0x** — "AI turned $50 into $2,980 on Polymarket." 90% likely fake. No proof. VERDICT: DISCARD.
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- **@seelffff** — "Bayesian trading agent, $10→$700 on Polymarket 5-min markets." 5-minute markets don't exist on Polymarket. Kelly Criterion name-drop. VERDICT: Fake, DISCARD.
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- **@RohOnChain** — Kelly Criterion / gabagool22 analysis. Legit math but misleading presentation.
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### Red Flag Taxonomy
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1. **New account + extraordinary claims** — account age <90 days claiming huge returns
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2. **No proof** — no wallet, no trade history, no screenshots with verifiable details
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3. **"Anyone can do it" framing** — "I'm 18 / my brother is 15 / no experience" = engagement bait
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4. **Course seller funnel** — free content → paid Discord/streams/course
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5. **Math jargon theater** — Kelly Criterion, Bayes' theorem, "alpha" used as decoration, not substance
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6. **Coordinated promotion** — multiple accounts posting similar content about same asset/project simultaneously
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7. **Collapsing volume on pumped assets** — distribution phase, insiders exiting
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8. **Affiliate/referral links in bio** — financial incentive to promote
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9. **Impossible returns on stated platform** — e.g., "5-minute markets on Polymarket" (don't exist)
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10. **GitHub star farming** — rapid star accumulation with low real engagement
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## Available Tools
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- **Tweet Analyzer:** `tools/analyze_tweet.py` — Playwright CDP scraping, yfinance lookup, red flag detection
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- **DefiLlama:** `tools/data_sources/defillama.py` — Protocol TVL, token prices, yield/APY (FREE, no auth)
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- **yfinance:** Stock data, financials, insider trades (FREE, no API key)
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- **Polymarket APIs:**
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- Data API: `data-api.polymarket.com`
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- CLOB API: `clob.polymarket.com/book?token_id={id}`
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- Gamma API: `gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets`
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- **Browser automation:** Playwright + Chrome CDP for scraping
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- **Web search/fetch:** For general research
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## Data Source Limitations
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- **Coinglass** — API locked behind paywall. Binance futures fallback geo-blocked from US (451).
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- **Arkham** — Needs paid API key for wallet tracking.
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- **DefiLlama** — Genuinely free. Best free crypto data source.
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- **Binance International** — Geo-blocked from US. Must use Binance US (`api.binance.us`).
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## Standing Orders
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- Every investigation ends with financial opportunity assessment
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- Assume every claim is false until verified
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- Track patterns across investigations — flag when new claims match known scam playbooks
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- Save all findings to workspace for institutional memory
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